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Missouri Policy Journal

Abstract

Missouri has approached abortion policy in a post-Dobbs world, in an interesting way. As one of the states with a trigger law in effect, following the overturning of Roe v. Wade (1973), abortions were banned in Missouri except in very few cases. Just two years later, a constitutional amendment, Amendment 3, was added to the 2024 general election ballot to restore the right to abortion. This paper explores the results of two exit polls administered on Election Day 2022 and 2024, asking voters in Maryville, Missouri, their opinions about abortion. The results show Maryville voters support abortion protections, in 2022 and 2024. This consistency in attitudes towards abortion indicates opposition to any future proposed ballot measure restricting abortion access.

Research Highlights

  • The Problem: This research investigates whether the 2024 failure of a Missouri abortion rights constitutional amendment in a rural county was a sudden outlier or reflective of pre-existing voter attitudes and demographic trends. 

  • The Method: Researchers analyzed results from Election Day exit polls administered in 2022 and 2024 to registered voters in Maryville, Missouri, using OLS and logistic regression models to identify demographic predictors of abortion policy preferences. 

  • Quantitative Finding: Missouri voters approved Amendment 3 with 51.6% support, while 58% of Nodaway County voters opposed it; 90% of 2022 respondents favored policy exemptions; 22.78% favored restricting out-of-state travel for abortions; the 2024 statistical model reduced prediction error by 10.34%. 

  • Qualitative Finding: Support for abortion access is strongly driven by personal experience with the procedure, Republican or Democratic party affiliation, and parental status; younger, educated women in the university town of Maryville showed higher support for reproductive rights compared to the more conservative surrounding rural county.

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