Are Missourians Voting for Conservative Candidates and Liberal Policies? A Case for Ballot Measure Ticket Splitting

Authors

• Kimberly L. Casey, Northwest Missouri State University
• Andrew Strunc, Northwest Missouri State University

Abstract

Missouri voters have recently been observed engaging in a form of ticket splitting in which support for Republican candidates is accompanied by approval of liberal ballot measures. This study examines that phenomenon using data from the Northwest Policy and Civic Engagement Center’s exit poll of the 2024 general election, conducted in Maryville, Missouri. The data reveal a strong tendency among voters to support candidates from a single party, Democratic or Republican, yet split their votes on ballot measures aligned with opposing ideological positions. We define this behavior as Ballot Measure Ticket Splitting (BMTS): the act of casting a straight-ticket vote for candidates of one party while voting against that party’s stance on at least one ballot measure. To clarify terminology, we propose distinguishing this from traditional ticket splitting, which we relabel as Candidate Ticket Splitting (CTS). Preliminary evidence from other states suggests that BMTS is not unique to Missouri, though further research is needed to examine its causes and geographic distribution.

Research Highlights

The Problem: Researchers investigate a political paradox in Missouri where voters consistently elect Republican candidates to state and national offices while simultaneously supporting liberal policy initiatives via ballot measures. 

The Method: The study analyzes Missouri's 2024 general election results and exit poll data from 475 respondents in Maryville, Missouri, to distinguish between Candidate Ticket Splitting (CTS) and a new phenomenon termed Ballot Measure Ticket Splitting (BMTS). 

Quantitative Finding: Republican candidates won all 2024 statewide offices with at least 55% of the vote; 82.95% of poll respondents voted a straight ticket for major offices; 61.86% of straight-ticket Republican voters supported at least one liberal-leaning ballot measure; 63.89% of straight-ticket Democrats opposed at least one liberal policy; Amendment 3 (reproductive freedom) passed with 15.46% support from straight-ticket Republicans. 

Qualitative Finding: Ballot Measure Ticket Splitting is driven by voters distinguishing between candidate identity and specific policy issues; gender moderates partisan alignment on reproductive rights; complex ballot language and "ballot candy" provisions influence voter comprehension; voters prioritize personal self-interest or identity over party platform on direct democracy measures.

Recommended Citation

Casey, Kimberly L. and Strunc, Andrew (2026) "Are Missourians Voting for Conservative Candidates and Liberal Policies? A Case for Ballot Measure Ticket Splitting," Missouri Policy Journal: Vol. 2: Iss. 3, Article 4.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.62608/2330-930X.1087
Available at: https://digitalcommons.lindenwood.edu/mpj/vol2/iss3/4