Fear, Parties, and the 2024 General Election: A Review of Exit Poll Information from Missouri Voters

Authors

• Jacob H. Tengelsen, Northwest Missouri State University
• Bronson P. Herrera, Northwest Missouri State University

Abstract

Increased emotions mark current elections. Particularly, election-related anxiety has risen over the years, causing health and social concerns. Despite studying the risks of election-related fear, researchers have yet to delve into the existing partisan contrasts. We hypothesize that there will be a partisan difference in levels of fear in the 2024 election. We rely on exit poll data collected by the Northwest Center of Policy and Civic Engagement. We find more increased levels of fear among Democrats about the election of Donald Trump than we do among Republicans about the prospect of a Kamala Harris presidency. We reflect on the role of the availability heuristic as an avenue of understanding partisan fear. Finally, we make suggestions for overcoming partisan fears irrespective of who is feeling them

Research Highlights

The Problem: Researchers explore how partisanship and the availability heuristic influenced levels of election-related stress and "fear of losing" among Missouri voters during the 2024 General Election. 

The Method: An exit poll of 410 respondents in Maryville, Missouri, utilized an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model and a 100-point feeling thermometer to measure fear and anger regarding potential presidential candidate losses. 

Quantitative Finding: Democrats scored 17 points higher in fear than Republicans and 30 points higher than Independents; women scored 16 points higher than men; respondents with children under 18 scored 8 points higher; single respondents were 9.5 points more fearful than married individuals; more education correlated with less fear (beta=-14.68); and the model's R-squared was 21 percent. 

Qualitative Finding: Heightened partisan fear is attributed to the availability heuristic, where voters rely on readily accessible, often sensationalized information or "extreme" candidate representations—such as rhetoric regarding gun control, abortion, or personal scandals—to evaluate perceived threats. 

Finding: To mitigate election-related trauma and partisan discord, the study suggests subverting party-vote expectations, utilizing dialectical logic to validate alternative perspectives, and developing non-political social relationships to counter outgroup stereotyping.

Recommended Citation

Tengelsen, Jacob H. and Herrera, Bronson P. (2026) "Fear, Parties, and the 2024 General Election: A Review of Exit Poll Information from Missouri Voters," Missouri Policy Journal: Vol. 2: Iss. 3, Article 3.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.62608/2330-930X.1086
Available at: https://digitalcommons.lindenwood.edu/mpj/vol2/iss3/3